New Delhi, April 22 (IANS) With the conflict in the Middle East leading to disruption in oil supplies and soaring prices in global market, South Asian countries are turning to India, rather than China, to tide over the fuel crisis, according to an article published by OCRA (Organisation for Research on China and Asia).
For South Asian economies already operating with limited buffers, a prolonged disruption could translate into sustained price pressures and mounting fiscal strain.
In this context, how India and China, the two regional powers, choose to respond, whether by extending sustained assistance, scaling up engagement, or retreating inward, will shape longer-term regional alignments, the article written by Ophelia Yumlembam states.
For smaller South Asian countries, the implications are severe and immediate. These economies depend heavily on Gulf-based hydrocarbon imports and have limited buffers to absorb shocks. In such conditions, the value of a regional power is defined by its ability to respond quickly and reliably to a crisis.
Despite deep economic and infrastructure ties with China, South Asian states have preferred to turn to India when the crisis unfolds. That choice is not incidental. It reflects a consistent pattern across crises, where India emerges as the preferred partner and first responder, a perception that could be leveraged for long-term strategic influence, the article states.
It highlights that over the past decade, both India and China have significantly expanded their energy footprints across South Asia, but in different ways.
China’s approach has been anchored in large-scale infrastructure development under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with investments in ports, pipelines, and refining capacity aimed at strengthening connectivity.
For instance, last year, Sri Lanka received $3.7 billion from China as foreign direct investment for an oil refinery with a 200,000-barrel capacity at southern Hambantota. On the other hand, India has operated a less financially-intensive, but functional approach.
Leveraging its geographical proximity to Bangladesh, New Delhi has built a cross-border energy pipeline with Dhaka, transporting diesel from the Numaligarh refinery in Assam to Parbatipur in Bangladesh since 2023.
With Nepal, India has a B2B agreement between the Indian Oil Corporation and the Nepal Oil Corporation since 2024 to enhance petroleum infrastructure, integrating its energy system with neighbouring economies. It has enabled faster mobilisation of supply, making its energy partnerships more immediately actionable under stress conditions.
The article points out that Sri Lanka, after receiving urgent fuel assistance from India in March, sought additional support from China only in early April. Although Beijing subsequently offered assurances, the scale and modalities of its assistance remain unclear.
A similar dynamic is visible with the Maldives. Despite the Maldives’ pro-China alignment during the initial phase of President Mohamed Muizzu’s tenure, Male did not approach Beijing for fuel assistance and, instead, turned to India to meet its immediate needs. Taken together, these cases show a clear pattern of smaller South Asian states prioritising responsiveness over depth of economic or political ties in times of acute stress.
India, despite facing significant energy supply disruptions, has positioned itself as a regional first-responder. It has stepped in to supply crude oil, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), LNG, petrol and diesel to its neighbours during a period of acute supply scarcity, thus positioning itself as a stabilising force in the region.
Since March, India has supplied 38,000 metric tonnes of petroleum to Sri Lanka following Colombo’s request, delivered 22,000 metric tonnes of diesel to Bangladesh via the Friendship Pipeline and is currently examining additional supply requests from Nepal and the Maldives.
This approach — often described as “energy diplomacy” — is not merely reactive. It reflects a strategic choice to deploy energy capacity as an instrument of regional statecraft, the article added.
–IANS
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