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New Delhi, Dec 11 (IANS) The quick fall — and flight — of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has evoked triumph in certain quarters and disquiet in others, as it seems to have upended the political situation and strategic calculus of the Middle East. However, a look at the record of the key Arab country and others may suggest the last word on what follows remains to be said.

Both Israel and the US have rushed to take claim for the overthrow of the over six-decade rule of the Ba’ath Party, Turkey is quietly exulting, and the end of the Russian and Iranian influence in the Arab heartland state is being celebrated.

There are, however, reports that Assad, who had been moving family members out of the country quietly, had cut a deal with the rebels for a safe exit, given the problems in maintaining control over a fragmenting and impoverished country. Russia, involved in Ukraine, and Iran, weakened by attacks on its regional proxies, are perceived as not extending themselves over much in preserving Assad’s rule, like earlier. They are also seeking to build bridges with the new rulers — Russia has obtained guarantees on its bases in the country, and both Moscow and Tehran may be biding their time till the inherent contradictions in the situation bubble up.

The Al Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces, and other elements of what may become a toxic Syrian brew, may find ousting Assad was the easy part. Take the SDF, which is predominantly Kurdish — a community which Turkey regards as its enemy incarnate — what happens when they come close?

While Syria is predominantly Sunni, the power was long held by the Alawite sub-sect of Shias, from which the Assad family and its key personnel hail, and the country also has sizeable Kurd, Druze, Shia, and Arab Christian (divided into six major churches) segments of the populace.

Described as a tribal and fractious country by then Saudi Crown Prince Faisal in the mid-1950s, Syria has witnessed at least eight military coups and a short-lived union with Egypt in the first quarter century as a free country following independence from France in 1946. It was only after Air Force chief Hafez Al Assad seized power in 1970, after being a key part of the 1961, 1963, and 1966 coups, that there was a semblance of stability, though with an authoritarian bent, save the abortive Islamist revolt of the early 1980s.

While Assad had groomed his eldest son Bassel as his successor, the latter’s death in a 1994 accident forced him to choose his second son, Bashar, for the role. Bashar Al Assad succeeded his father in 2000 and governed without hitch till the Arab Spring affected his country too, leading to the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011. It was a tough time for him till Russian and Iranian military intervention turned the tide, leading to roughly another decade in power till the rebels’ resurgence at the end of 2024 spelt a final finish.

Then, the Assads’ long rule may have been despotic, but, here its end must be compared with the situation that arose after the violent overthrow of other ‘despots’ in the Middle East, spanning the entire region from the dusty plains of Iraq to the sandy expanses of Libya. Did the ouster of either Saddam Hussain of Iraq in 2003 or Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 meet the strategic aims of their adversaries or leave the countries a better place?

The answer is evident — in Iraq, the long-repressed Shia majority rose up and an alignment with neighbouring Iran was achieved, while sparking a Sunni insurgency that required the US and the regime a considerable time to stamp out. Scarcely had this been done, the spectre of the Islamic State — which in some respects, outdid Al Qaeda in viciousness — arose. While the US claims credit for countering and weakening it, the role of Iran-backed Iraqi militias, and Gen Qassem Soleimani as a strategist, was also key. In an unstable Syria, could either Al Qaeda or the IS regain strength?

Israel, as a neighbour, will also face the blowback, irrespective of rumours of “common interests”. And growing Turkish influence in an adjoining country, given the rising tension between the two over Gaza is not conducive to peace.

On the other hand, the removal of Gaddafi’s strong hand left the country divided and in chaos. More significantly, for Europe, just across the Mediterranean, it sparked a refugee influx, straining littoral states like Italy and Greece, and as far beyond as the United Kingdom, creating social and demographic tensions, and fuelling the rise of nativist and populist parties that are gaining strength.

Remember what they say about history repeating itself?

(Vikas Datta can be contacted at vikas.d@ians.in)

–IANS

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Los Angeles, Dec 11 (IANS) A large wildfire in Malibu in Southern California has grown to over 2,700 acres (10.9 square kilometres) prompting evacuations due to dangerous fire conditions.

The fire, codenamed Franklin Fire, was reported Monday night. It started near Malibu Creek State Park in Los Angeles County, Xinhua news agency reported.

Power to tens of thousands of people had been shut off by Monday night as utilities worked to mitigate the impacts of the winds, as strong gusts can damage electrical equipment and spark wildfires, according to local media reports.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) has issued evacuation orders. The fire area is closed to public access.

There are approximately 18,000 people and 8,100 homes and businesses under evacuation orders or warnings, Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna told reporters Tuesday. There are several shelters for displaced residents, he said.

“Widespread Red Flag conditions across much of Southern California due to Santa Ana Winds will continue to be a threat to residents and property throughout the week,” said Cal Fire.

Cal Fire asked people to stay up to date with weather and fire conditions in their areas, and be prepared to evacuate if notified.

Currently the fire is active with no containment at all, according to Cal Fire live report.

The Santa Ana Winds peaked in strength Tuesday morning, fanning the fire and worsening conditions.

“Critical fire weather conditions are expected through at least Wednesday as a strong Santa Ana wind event continues across the burn area,” according to the fire spot forecast of the US National Weather Service (NWS).

It will not be until Wednesday afternoon that winds and other fire weather conditions will begin to improve significantly, according to NWS.

Due to the ongoing fire and safety concerns, all Malibu schools were closed Tuesday, the city of Malibu announced.

More than 60,000 customers in California are without power, according to PowerOutage.us.

Pacific Coast Highway was closed between Carbon Canyon and Corral Canyon Road to evacuees only, according to Cal Fire.

Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said in a news briefing on Tuesday that “a minimal number” of homes had been destroyed. No serious injuries or fatalities have been reported so far.

The state of California secured a grant from the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to support fire response, Governor Gavin Newsom announced Tuesday.

A state of local emergency has also been declared in Los Angeles County due to “conditions of disaster” or “extreme peril to the safety of persons and property,” said county board of supervisors chair Kathryn Barger.

–IANS

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Damascus, Dec 11 (IANS) Syrian ministers from the newly formed transitional government met with members of the ousted Bashar al-Assad’s administration to organise the transfer of state institutions and ensure the continuity of public services, according to the Syrian national TV.

Mohammad al-Bashir, the Prime Minister overseeing the transitional government, said his cabinet, composed of ministers from the transitional government, has been tasked by the general leadership to manage Syria’s affairs until March 2025, during which the transitional government aims to assume control of ministries, reintroduce employees to their posts, and restore essential services across the country, Xinhua news agency reported.

“Our responsibility is to maintain security, protect the integrity of institutions, and prevent the fragmentation of the state,” al-Bashir told reporters. “We want to ensure that Syrians receive the services they deserve during this interim phase until a new government is formed that meets the aspirations of Syrian society.”

Al-Bashir underscored the need for cooperation from outgoing ministers, particularly in handing over files and responsibilities.

“We hope the ministers from the deposed regime will assist their successors,” he said, emphasising that a smooth transition is crucial to delivering uninterrupted public services to the Syrian people.

–IANS

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Beirut, Dec 11 (IANS) Members of the Lebanese army fired warning shots at unknown gunmen who crossed the border from the Syrian side into Lebanon in the outskirts of the village of Kfar Qouq, eastern Lebanon, according to a statement by the Lebanese army.

“Unknown gunmen coming from Syrian territory crossed the border and approached one of the army’s border posts and fired into the air,” said the statement published on social media platform X.

“The Lebanese army fired warning shots, which forced the gunmen to return to Syrian territory,” added the statement.

A Lebanese military source told Xinhua that “the Lebanese army summoned additional forces to this axis, where they carried out a large-scale combing operation that reached meters from the borderline with Syria.”

The Lebanese army had strengthened its presence and deployment along the borderline separating Lebanon and Syria, Xinhua news agency reported.

Syria’s al-Assad’s government collapsed on Sunday amid a major offensive waged by militant groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

–IANS

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Tehran, Dec 11 (IANS) Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad was elected as the rotating president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for 2025.

In a press release on its website, OPEC confirmed the election of its president for the upcoming year and thanked Marcel Abeke, Gabon’s minister of petroleum, for his leadership as the organisation’s rotating president in 2024, Xinhua news agency reported quoting Iran’s official news agency IRNA.

According to IRNA, the newly elected OPEC president, Paknejad, emphasised his commitment to using all his capacities to uphold the organisation’s consistency, solidarity, and progress.

The OPEC conference has renewed the term of office for Haitham Al Ghais as secretary general for an additional three years, effective August 1, 2025, according to the OPEC press release.

Iran is set to assume the presidency of the organisation on January 1, 2025. The OPEC presidency rotates annually among OPEC member countries.

The OPEC is a permanent intergovernmental organisation of 12 oil-exporting developing nations that coordinates and unifies the petroleum policies of its member countries.

–IANS

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United Nations, Dec 11 (IANS) UN humanitarians said that the humanitarian situation in Syria remains volatile, with continuing hostilities and looting reported in the capital Damascus area but relative calm in the country’s northwest.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported challenges for aid delivery in parts of the northeast, Xinhua news agency reported.

“Airstrikes and other hostilities continue to be reported in Damascus, rural Damascus, Daraa, and As-Sweida,” OCHA said. “Some looting of aid warehouses, including those of UN agencies and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent has been reported.”

UN agencies and their partners said they are trying to identify the extent of the reported looting.

A curfew is in place in Damascus and its countryside, Latakia, and Tartous from 5:00 p.m. to 5:00 a.m. local time. “While vital public services are gradually resuming, movement restrictions, including curfews, are hindering the flow of goods and services,” OCHA said.

The humanitarians have received reports from areas with relative calm of displaced people who fled hostilities in the past two weeks returning home.

“All 11 reception centers that had been opened in Idlib to host newly displaced families were empty as of yesterday (Monday),” the office said, adding that its partners in the northeast report people continuing to arrive in displaced sites.

The United Nations and partners continue aid activities as the security situation permits. OCHA said the cross-border operation from Turkey is continuing without any impediment.

“Our humanitarian colleagues tell us that 25 trucks carrying UN aid crossed to northwest Syria,” the office said. “Nine trucks carrying more than 200 tons of food crossed through Bab Al-Salam, while 16 trucks crossed through Bab Al-Hawa.”

UN partners also deployed 16 mobile medical teams to support the response in underserved areas and displacement camps. The UN Population Fund and the World Health Organization reported distributing health, surgical and trauma kits to support hospitals.

The World Food Programme (WFP) reported that food prices in markets across the country are increasing sharply. In the past two weeks, more than 20 partners delivered food to more than 590,000 people in northwest Syria.

WFP and its partners have provided meals to more than 40,000 people in Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Latakia, Deir El Zor, Raqqa and Hasaka, according to the agency.

The UN Refugee Agency distributed cash assistance for winter support to more than 6,000 households in Idlib and northern Aleppo and transported 1,500 core relief item kits to Idlib while working with its partners.

–IANS

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