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RBI raises real GDP growth forecast to 6.7 pc for 2025-26

Mumbai, Feb 7 (IANS) The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday raised the country’s real GDP growth forecast to real GDP growth for 2025-26 to 6.7 per cent, as it expects a robust rabi crop output and an expected recovery in industrial activity to support economic growth going ahead.

It also expects CPI inflation to moderate to 4.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of the current financial year and decline further to 4.2 per cent in 2025-26.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that “looking ahead, healthy rabi prospects and an expected recovery in industrial activity should support economic growth in 2025-26”.

“Among the key drivers on the demand side, household consumption is expected to remain robust aided by the tax relief in the Union Budget 2025-26,” Malhotra noted.

“Fixed investment is expected to recover, supported by higher capacity utilisation levels, healthy balance sheets of financial institutions and corporates, and Government’s continued emphasis on capital expenditure,” Malhotra said in his address after the monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting.

At the same time, he mentioned the risk to growth posed by global uncertainties and climate change.

“Taking all these factors into consideration, real GDP growth for 2025-26 is projected at 6.7 per cent with Q1 at 6.7 per cent; Q2 at 7.0 per cent; and Q3 and Q4 at 6.5 per cent each. The risks are evenly balanced,” said the RBI Governor.

The RBI had in December revised its GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent from 7.2 per cent earlier.

He pointed out that the global economy is growing below the historical average even though high frequency indicators suggest resilience amidst continued expansion in world trade. The world economic landscape remains challenging with slower pace of disinflation, lingering geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties, he added.

Malhotra also said that the strong US dollar continues to strain emerging market currencies and enhance volatility in financial markets. In this context he mentioned that the RBI was keeping a close watch on the depreciation of the rupee and taking all steps to stabilised the Indian currency.

“On the domestic front, as per the First Advance Estimates, real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow at 6.4 per cent (y-o-y) in 2024-25 supported by a recovery in private consumption. On the supply side, growth is supported by the services sector and a recovery in agriculture sector, while tepid industrial growth is a drag,” he said.

Resilient services exports will continue to support growth. However, headwinds from geo-political tensions, protectionist trade policies, volatility in international commodity prices and financial market uncertainties, continue to pose downside risks to the outlook, he added.

The RBI Governor also said that headline inflation softened sequentially in November-December 2024 from its recent peak of 6.2 per cent in October. The moderation in food inflation, as vegetable price inflation came off from its October high, drove the decline in headline inflation. Core inflation remained subdued across goods and services components and the fuel group continued to be in deflation.

Going ahead, food inflation pressures, absent any supply side shock, should see a significant softening due to good kharif production, winter-easing in vegetable prices and favourable rabi crop prospects. Core inflation is expected to rise but remain moderate.

However, continued uncertainty in global financial markets coupled with volatility in energy prices and adverse weather events presents upside risks to the inflation trajectory, he added.

The RBI Governor said taking all these factors into consideration, CPI inflation for 2024-25 is projected at 4.8 per cent with Q4 at 4.4 per cent. Assuming a normal monsoon next year, CPI inflation for 2025-26 is projected at 4.2 per cent with Q1 at 4.5 per cent; Q2 at 4.0 per cent; Q3 at 3.8 per cent; and Q4 at 4.2 per cent). The risks are evenly balanced.

–IANS

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Odisha received 121 investment intents worth Rs 8,153 crore in tourism sector: Dy CM

Bhubaneswar, Jan 29 (IANS) Odisha’s tourism sector saw a massive boost at the ‘Utkarsh Odisha – Make in Odisha Conclave 2025’ with 121 investment intents amounting to a remarkable Rs 8,153 crore. The announcement was made by Deputy Chief Minister, Pravati Parida, who expressed confidence in the state’s rising status as a prime investment hub.

Talking to IANS, Parida emphasised, “Utkarsh Odisha is the ray of hope. As PM Modi stated, the next destination for investors is now Odisha. We’ve already seen investments pouring in from diverse sectors, and this year, the tourism sector alone has drawn significant attention, with over Rs 8,153 crore in investment commitments. The establishment of an MSME park for women-led businesses and the participation of women in leadership roles are additional promising steps towards a brighter future for Odisha.”

The ‘Utkarsh Odisha’ Conclave, inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday is being hailed as the biggest business summit the state has ever hosted, with a record number of investors in attendance. Speaking at the event, PM Modi noted that Odisha is playing a crucial role in the growth of Eastern India, which is rapidly becoming a key economic engine for the nation.

“This is my second visit to Odisha this month, and I am thrilled to see such enthusiastic participation in Make in Odisha Conclave 2025,” the Prime Minister said.

“Eastern India, with Odisha at its heart, is integral to India’s growth, with its rich industrial, port, and trade hubs. Odisha’s participation in South East Asia’s trade legacy is being revived, and this region is opening up unprecedented opportunities for growth,” PM Modi said.

PM Modi highlighted the historical connections between Odisha and South East Asia, recalling the significant role the state played in ancient trade routes. He also pointed out the growing interest from ASEAN countries and praised the recent visit of the President of Singapore, further cementing Odisha’s global ties.

In his address, the Prime Minister assured investors that the time to invest in Odisha’s development journey is now, and their investments would usher in new heights of success for both the state and the nation.

–IANS

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Bengaluru Police file FIR against Air Force officer in road rage case

Bengaluru, April 22 (IANS) The Bengaluru Police lodged an FIR against an Indian Air Force officer on Tuesday in connection with a road rage incident involving him and a bike rider.

The case was registered under the jurisdiction of the Byappanahalli police station. The FIR has been filed against Wing Commander Shiladitya Bose. Earlier, the bike rider, Vikas Kumar, was arrested in connection with the case. The incident came to light after Bose uploaded a video on social media claiming he was attacked by a local youth for not speaking in Kannada.

However, later CCTV footage revealed Bose overpowering the bike rider, banging, kicking, and punching him.

The FIR has been filed under IPC Sections 109 (attempt to murder), 115(2) (voluntarily causing hurt), 304 (snatching forcefully), 324 (mischief), and 352 (intentional insult to provoke breach of peace).

The complaint was lodged by Vikas Kumar, a call centre employee. According to him, while he was returning a friend’s bike, a car touched his vehicle. “When I questioned why they hit the bike, the officer kicked it. When I objected, he continuously assaulted me. When I tried to call my friend, he snatched my phone and threw it. He also threw away the bike keys and attempted to choke me,” Kumar alleged.

The incident escalated after Kannada organisations condemned the officer’s video and the alleged assault, criticising him for giving the issue a Kannada versus Hindi language twist. After Kumar’s arrest, they also slammed the police for taking one-sided action.

DCP East D. Devaraju had stated earlier that the incident occurred around 6 a.m. on Monday while the Air Force officer was travelling from DRDO Quarters to the Bengaluru International Airport. “An altercation broke out between the officer, his wife, and the biker. His wife, Squadron Leader Madhumita Das, was driving the car. The situation escalated, and we have CCTV footage along with videos taken by bystanders,” he said.

“It’s a clear case of road rage. Both parties could have avoided the incident. Around 6.30 a.m., they came to the police station, and the SHO advised them to seek first aid as they were bleeding,” he added.

He also stated that Bose had left for the airport due to a delay. “Once he went live on social media, we traced the details and contacted Madhumita Das at the DRDO quarters. She later came to the police station and filed a complaint. This is a clear road rage incident,” DCP Devaraju reiterated.

–IANS

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